***Here is a continued spotlight of some of this years surprising few who have thrown their name into consideration for the 2012 draft; this time looking at defensive players.***
‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡Part 2 – Defense‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡‡
Marcus Forston, DT —r.Jr.— Miami U
Since the very beginning of his career at Miami, Forston has been under the microscopes of NFL scouts across the country. He was the top interior lineman prospect coming out of high school, and the hype surrounding his potential would haunt him throughout the entirety of his career at Miami. It does not help that Forston was involved in the Nevin Shapiro scandal that has even further destabilized the program in Coral Gables, after many disappointing seasons outside of the national spotlight. Forston was part of the first class that was supposed to bring Miami back into contention, but instead has only further stained the U’s prestige. Forston showed his high talent ceiling his first season starting as a true freshman, but underwhelmed every year after that and received a medical redshirt in 2009. In his 2010 season after returning for injury, his TFL jumped to 12, but failed to increase his tackle total significantly or his sacks (3 in ’08 & ’10). This past season was when the wheels fell apart, as Forston was suspended for his role in the Shapiro scheme and only played three miserable games this year before shutting down entirely due to injury.
Forston’s decision to enter the draft does not seem very wise at all given the circumstances regarding his production at Miami, especially the 2011 season. However, the Miami U program continues to be one of the most inconsistent and unstable programs year to year now, and has failed on numerous accounts to turn its supreme recruited talent into the stars on the gridiron that poured from South Beach in past years. Miami set records for the number of players taken in early draft rounds years ago, but that trend has ended most recently. Forston is a true example of the change in the U’s ability to develop standouts. The program shows no signs of a quick turnaround in 2012, so maybe Forston decided it was safer to risk injury again and to enter. A strong senior year definitely would have jolted his draft stock, but another injury would have completely destroyed his chances of getting drafted due to durability concerns. As a result, Forston will remain an enigma throughout the entire draft process; his production and film of his collegiate experience does not always fit his talent ceiling. As a result, he will most likely remain a mid round pick despite his potential.
DECISION: GOOD
Michael Brockers, DT, —r.So.— Louisiana State
With only two days before the deadline, Brockers shook up draft boards across the country by tossing his name into the hat for this April. As a redshirt sophomore, Brockers truly emerged as one of the nations standout defensive linemen for arguably the best unit in the nation. It helps that he was playing alongside the likes of Sam Montgomery and Co., but Brockers is the real deal. He was not a very highly touted prospect coming out of high school, but over his past three years at LSU he has really grown into his massive frame and greatly developed his abilities as an interior force. The 2011 season was his first year as starter, and he piled up 54 tackles, 10 for a loss, and 2 sacks. His sack total was low, but his ability to disrupt the pocket cannot simply be quantified with the sack statistic, much like Jerel Worthy. Also, he was part of a very deep group of lineman at LSU, and was frequently rotated in and out. Early this season, Brockers stood out to me immediately as a sleeper to breakout, as well as a serious prospect for early round discussion for the 2013 draft. He grew into the foundation of such a prospect in 2011.
Of all the defensive prospects who entered the draft this year, Brockers’ entry is the most surprising. The funny thing is, I am bold enough to make the prediction that Brockers is taken in the first 25 picks come April. Given that quantification, his entry does not seem all that surprising. However, Brockers is only a redshirt sophomore with one year’s worth of starting experience. Also, his stats do not tell the entire story when it comes to his performance in 2011. Returning for school next season would have allowed him to improve even further overall, as well as the stat sheet. As the season waned to a close, I considered Brockers an early, hot pick for my top prospects to watch for the 2013 draft. With how much he has progressed since his arrival at LSU, it would not have been ludicrous to slate him as a future top ten pick in 2013. However, Brockers bailed early, and [I believe] he will cash in come Thursday night this April. However, it will be very hard to propel him into top fifteen discussion. The only way I can see such a thing happening is the lack of elite interior talent this season. Devon Still and Fletcher Cox are the current leaders of this class, and they would probably be second round picks in other draft years. Brockers may have not made the right choice, but given his performance in 2011, there is no way to say he did not make a good one.
DECISION: Meh…but $MART
Chandler Jones, DE —r.Jr.— Syracuse
You may not know that Jones is the brother of Ravens DT and Syracuse alum Arthur Jones, as well as UFC phenom Jon Jones. What you do know, is that Chandler Jones is another underclassman who decided to enter the draft after one fruitful season of prominence. As a redshirt junior in 2011, Jones piled up 38 tackles, 7.5 for a loss, 4.5 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles despite only appearing in seven games due to injury. His performance earned him first team All-Big East honors. Much like Michael Brockers, Chandler Jones emerged as a potential pro prospect early in the year, and I considered him a possible early round pick for 2013. He is a weapon as a pass rusher, and still has the size and strength to hold up as a stopping force in the ground game. His performance in Syracuse’s home stand and upset of West Virginia was the hallmark performance of 2011 for Jones. He tormented the WVU O-Line all game, and made his pressure felt throughout. He returned from injury that week, and dispelled those worries. Although, when Syracuse disappeared from relevance as the season wore on, Jones’ presence decreased. Out of all the prolific underclassmen defensive linemen who emerged as playmakers this season, Jones was one of the prospects I least expected to jump to the NFL immediately.
The good news about Jones’ declaration is that he has a draftable grade, worthy of a selection as early as the fourth round. However, Jones could just as easily be graded as late as the fifth or sixth round when the pre-draft murkiness clears up. There is no doubt that Jones flashed something special at times in 2011, but the consistency was not there. This is why his draft range is more volatile than similar prospects who fit his draft range, like Vinny Curry or Jake Bequette. [i.e. Remember George Selvie?...I was wrong on that one] Jones, ironically, enters the draft in a similar fashion as his brother Arthur did in 2010. I really did not even consider the possibility that Jones would have left this early, because he was headed straight for preiminary first round consideration for 2013. Jones has the tools, the athleticism, and the skill set, but I still do not know if he is NFL ready. Even though I do not think he will fall past the fifth round in the worst case scenario, I still do not think this was a very wise decision based upon the prospect of a first round draft stock if he had a solid season in 2013.
DECISION: BAD
Donte Paige-Moss, DE/(3-4)OLB —r.Jr.— North Carolina
Paige-Moss entered Chapil Hill as one of the programs most highly touted recruits in history. Ranked second at his position and in the top twenty nationally, high expectations were set from day one. From the very beginning, Paige-Moss’ time in Chapel Hill was very tumultuous. He was arrested before he even took the field, and was very disappointing in significant time his freshman season. But in 2010, the player he was hyped up to be truly came out. In his sophomore campaign he totaled 49 tackles, 13.5 for a loss, 7 sacks and one forced fumble and blocked kick each. After that season, he was on the short list of star underclassmen to watch not only for the draft, but to break out as a star in 2011. From the conclusion of 2010 on, though, it was all downhill. This season he lost his starting job, clashed with coaches, and showed limited desire and effort. To make matters only worse, he lost his job to a sophomore in Kareem Martin, and then tore his ACL in UNC’s bowl game after ripping the coaching staff, program, and fans. The final totals of his dismal 2011: 29 tackles, 4 for a loss, and 2 sacks.
Before the very first kickoff of the 2011 season, I had Donte Paige-Moss ranked in the top five for both DE’s and Rush OLB’s eligible for the 2012 draft. It did not take very long for Paige-Moss to free fall down that list, and out of draft discussion completely. The only recognition he gained this season was for how he returned to immature and apathetic ways of the past. In a normal to above average year for DE/(3-4)OLB’s, Paige-Moss would not have any shot of being drafted. In fact, he is only still in consideration for this April due to the high level of talent and promise he has shown in the past. He will have a steep hill to climb and overcome until draft day, and even further on after that. Missing all of the pre-draft events is one thing; missing your first preseason is another. The future is very murky for Paige-Moss, but the moron had no other chance than to declare after he destroyed his reputation at UNC.
DECISION: What an idiot.
Terrell Manning, OLB —r.Jr.— North Carolina State
After emerging as a standout player last season as a redshirt sophomore, Manning followed up by putting together a solid season in 2011. After 75 tackles, 10.5 for a loss, 4.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles and an interception in 2010, Manning slightly improved in 2011 by accruing 76 tackles, 14.5 for a loss, 5.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, and three interceptions. His production is quite outstanding as an outside backer in a 4-3, but Manning is not a spectacular athlete compared to the likes of the elite outside backers of this class, and does not play the run as well of some of the other backers in his draft range, such as Bobby Wagner and Emmanuel Acho. However, Manning was a leader on a very strong defensive unit, and showed up to play every game in 2011. In fact, he compares favorably in a lot of ways to former NCST linebacker Nate Irving, who left for the NFL last season. They share a lot of the same questions about athleticism and making tackles in traffic at the line of scrimmage. The difference is, where Irving’s height was the question, its Manning’s strength.
Manning’s decision to declare was every bit as surprising as the other prospects on this list, but for other reasons. At the beginning of their careers, Manning was probably the least touted among these eight, but has shown that he can produce at the same NFL-caliber level as the others, as well as other backers. Right now, he looms in the mid round range, but the next few months could really clarify what class of prospect Manning really is. I would not be surprised to see his draft stock increase, but it very well might not do anything at all. He could have returned in 2012 as a Butkus award candidate with the opportunity to add further to his 2011 stats. With that judgment, it is really difficult to say whether or not he made the right decision.
DECISION: Meh
Jonathan Massaquoi, OLB —r.Jr.— Troy
Jonathan Massaquoi qualifies as one of the many athletes to have played out of position at defensive end in college, and will instead be better fit at an outside linebacker position in the NFL. At an undersized 6’2″, 250 Pounds with considerable pass rushing skills, Massaquoi seems destined for the outside in a 3-4 scheme at the next level. Even more so because of the ends that have come from Troy to play similar roles in the NFL on the outside (Ware, specifically). After a breakout sophomore campaign, his first as a starter, Massaquoi amounted 76 tackles, 20.5 for a loss, 12.5 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles. Pretty impressive numbers for an undersized end. Following the 2010 season, Massaquoi emerged on the radars of NFL scouts, as they would search for evidence of Massaquoi as the next elite pass rusher from Troy. 2010 provided lots of hope, but his 2011 campaign resulted only in disappointment. He concluded his redshirt junior season with 52 tackles, 10.5 for a loss, 6 sacks, one forced fumble and one blocked kick. The clear regression has worried scouts about his true potential at the next level.
After a tremendous first year as a starter in 2010, his second year fared less successful for Massaquoi. Now, talent evaluators will really need to break it down and determine whether or not his regression in 2011 was due to increased blocking attention, a decrease in effort, true skill level, or some combination of factors. From the first game of the year against Clemson, I could tell that defenses were aware of the threat he posed, especially for a team that has no other significant standout defensively. Much like Quinton Coples, his lack of increased production this season was due to his wild success the season before. Simply, offensive coordinators knew they had to eliminate Massaquoi as a deciding factor in order to gain the upper hand game in and game out this season. I still think that Massaquoi is a legitimate option in the early middle rounds this season, despite his 2011 slide. Playing as an undersized end eventually reaches its limits, especially in Troy’s system. Another year of increased attention and stagnated statistics would only have hurt his stock in 2013.
DECISION: GOOD
Josh Robinson, CB —Jr.— Central Florida
Robinson’s declaration is surprising due to the very few prospects that declare early from Conference USA. It is even more so because Robinson was not on my radar, or possibly anybody’s radar, as possible defensive backs who would take their talents to the NFL a year or two early. In fact, I had little heard of Josh Robinson at all, other than the fact that I took note he earned his second consecutive honor as First Team All-CUSA at corner after earning it as a true sophomore in 2010. In his three years, he totaled 36 pass breakups, falling short of NFL great Asante Samuel’s all time record by only two. After recording six interceptions starting as a freshman, quarterbacks decidedly threw his way fewer and fewer times a game, and recorded only two each of the next two seasons. Such performance certainly deserves consideration for the NFL.
The problem is, the 2012 draft will seemingly be a strong year for cornerbacks. And, to make matters worse, the top 5 to 7 corners are pretty much firmly established already. Compared to other corners that currently fit his draft range, Robinson did not play as daunting of opponents as some of the others faced. That washes Robinson’s name further down the list even more prematurely. Robinson will have to prove to scouts that he can compete at the same level as other entering corners from bigger programs. Robinson’s stat sheet resume checks out, but the deciding factor will be the performances he puts on for the NFL combine and his respective pro day. I currently have him ranked outside of my top ten corners, but within mid round draft status. Robinson was consistent in production ever since he stepped on the field at UCF though, and I do not see how another dominant season would not have helped his pro potential rather with a return for 2012 rather than declaring this year.
DECISION: BAD