2012 NFL Draft — Surprising Declarations
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Every year following the collegiate bowl games, a frenzy of underclassmen who forego the rest of their collegiate eligibility takes place in order to declare for the pros. It is always intriguing to see which prospects choose to declare and who chooses to return each year. Although draft experts now have a better feel each year for which prospects will inevitably leave school, every year there are a surprising few who choose to leave over returning to school. Here is a spotlight of some of this years surprising few who have thrown their name into consideration for the 2012 draft.
Brock Osweiler, QB —r.Jr.— Arizona State
During his redshirt junior campaign, Osweiler showed off the physical talent that scouts have been inquiring about since his arrival at ASU. In his first complete season as the Dun Devil’s starting quarterback, Osweiler threw for just over 4,000 yards, 26 touchdowns and only 13 interceptions. Despite the Sun Devil’s late season collapse, Osweiler’s performance this season certainly brought the Sun Devil offense to a new level that it has not seen in recent seasons. Despite his individual success, Dennis Erickson’s failures as head coach of the program overshadowed his breakout campaign in 2011. The offseason turmoil that the program will now face as it transitions to new head coach Todd Graham was likely the main factor in Osweiler’s decision to turn pro.
Osweiler’s draft declaration is a little disappointing to most scouts, as this year he truly revealed his potential as a signal caller for the next level. He has all the raw physical talent, measuring in at about 6’8″, 240 pounds, and can make all the throws required to be successful at the next level. One aspect of Osweiler’s game that cannot be accurately evaluated is his consistency. One season as the starter is just not adequate enough to determine a prospect’s capability at the next level. One part of this consistency aspect that also was questioned his season was his performance in the spotlight. Arizona State and Osweiler certainly put up valiant efforts in their prime time showdowns, but came away empty handed against big foes like Oregon. In big moments, Osweiler seemed to crumple and make unnecessary mistakes. However, an upset over USC certainly provides promise. I believe consistency and confidence to be closely related, so this will be heavily scrutinized during pre-draft preparations. Entering the draft process at this moment, Osweiler carries a mid round grade anywhere after the second round. However, with a traditionally weak class of quarterbacks this season, Osweiler might be tempting for teams looking for an underrated prospect in the second round.
DECISION: GOOD
Darron Thomas, QB —r.Jr.— Oregon
Despite being the starting quarterback for a very prolific Oregon team for the past few seasons, this declaration was much disturbing to me. Darron must be just as smart as his buddy Cliff Harris after this decision. Seriously, Darron Thomas is gaining nothing by declaring for the NFL a year ahead of time. He is a great athlete, but no where near a great quarterback, especially one with a bright future in the pros. Despite an impressive TD-to-INT (33 to 9) and YPC (8.1), Thomas threw for only 2,700 yards and did not do much to prove that he is more than a collegiate system quarterback. In fact, his statistics this season were almost identical to that of his redshirt sophomore campaign in 2010. The talent may be there, but the refinement surely is not.
With such a premature declaration, Thomas may not even be best fit to try and play quarterback at the next level. He has the size and the tools to play wide receiver, but that does not even seem like a very wise idea at this point. At best, Thomas will figure to be a late round pick as the draft winds to a close. Mr. Thomas willhave a very difficult future in making a squad and proving that he is NFL level material.
DECISION: BAD
Robert Turbin, RB —r.Jr.— Utah State
After a tremendous 2011 campaign in which Turbin ranked towards the top of the majority of rushing statistics, he decided to declare for the draft. Robert Turbin is certainly an NFL prospect, and I believe he will be drafted next year, but it is no guarantee. In today’s era, the running back is not a highly sought position in the early rounds, and very few are taken annually in the first sixty four selections. To declare early as a running back signifies that the prospect believes that they have the chance to be selected in such a range. Despite 1,500 yards, 19 touchdowns, and over 6.0 YPC and 110.0 YPG in his 2011 campaign, I am not willing to classify Turbin in the same talent group that includes Richardson, Miller, Wilson or James. There are also injury concerns with Turbin, as he tore his knee before the 2010 season.
There is at least some consolation in the fact that Turbin was already established as a 1,000+ yard feature before he tore his knee up. He has proven that he has the talent to be an NFL back someday. But, these decisions are graded on their timliness, and I would not deem Turbin’s a smart one. If Montee Ball was unhappy with the prediction the advisory board gave him, I cannot imagine how Turbin could have been happy with his own. With another year’s experience, Turbin may have been able to put himself into round two possibility, but I can simply not envision him being selected any earlier than the fifth round in April.
DECISION: Meh
Ronnie Hillman, RB —r.So.— San Diego State Ronnie Hillman was one of this year’s rare redshirt sophomores to declare early. His counterparts include the likes of Lamar Miller and Michael Brockers. However, Hillman is not as NFL ready as Miller is, and I see him as more a long term prospect than a immediate investment. After a breakout redshirt freshman campaign in 2010 where Hillman rose up the boards in rushing statistics, he followed up with another brilliant campaign as a sophomore. He also showed steady improvement into his second year and improved upon the phenomenal stats he put up as a freshman. The reason I am very surprised that Hillman decided to enter the draft so early is that he could have been a higher selection guaranteed had he decided to wait for the 2013 or even 2014 draft. His 1,700+ yards, 19 touchdowns, and 5.5 YPC are impressive, but he simply cannot be considered along the likes of more highly touted backs who can contribute immediately.
With declaring early, Hillman basically has erased any chance that he is selected within the first four rounds. He has the speed and vision to play in the NFL, but the experience is just not there yet. Especially, because tail back is one of the positions for which it is most important to be durable. As mentioned earlier, to declare early as a running back, you have to be special. Ronnie Hillman has put up some pretty impressive numbers, and a lot of arguments can be made for his case, but I just do not see him in the same league as similar backs like Lamar Miller. After watching SDSU’s bowl game against UL-L this season, my fears were only confirmed. Even though the play of his front line was awful, Hillman could not get anything going against a mediocre Sun Belt defense. Even though they are very different backs, Hillman carries a range quite similar to Robert Turbin, and I see him as an option any where after the fourth round.
DECISION: BAD
Darrell Scott, RB —r.Jr.— South Florida Of all the offensive prospects who have forgone the rest of their NCAA eligibiity for the draft, Darrell Scott’s decision to do so is arguably the most controversial. The prime tail back recruit from the class of 2008, Darrell Scott most controversially selected the University of Colorado. During his time there, he severely disappointed due to a high level of under achievement. In a move to save his career, Scott transferred to USF and sat out 2010 in order to play as a redshirt junior in 2011. Scott’s season was a solid building block for what could have been an impressive senior year, but he opted for the draft after only rushing for 814 yards and 5 scores in 2011.
Darrell Scott’s decision to enter is very perplexing, as he essentially is giving up on the remaining eligibility he sacrificed so much for. It is hard to imagine that the reason he chose to enter was because of a fear of being over taken next year. It is also hard to imagine that Darrell Scott received any sort of draft grade that would have enticed him to make the jump. Simply put, Darrell Scott has never fulfilled his potential or the promises he has made. He is an undrafted prospect right now, but has the overall talent to be considered in the late rounds. Buyer, beware.
DECISION: BAD
Steven Hill, WR —r.Jr.— Georgia Tech
Of all the high powered passsing attacks seen across college football today, you wont see that from the likes of Georgia Tech. In such a dramatic “run first” system, it would be very hard for any receiver to stand out statistically. However, Stephen Hill is the third big name receiver to come out of Georgia Tech in the last five years. Like Demaryius and Calvin before him, Hill found a way to grab the scout’s attention this year. On the perimeter, Hill was a dangerous target. His play making and ability to go up and get the ball stands out most. However, Hill is a raw talent, and is not at the level Thomas or Johnson were when they left GT. Hill checks in at 6’5″ 205 pounds, and can leap like a deer. These traits were on display all season as Hill made some unbelievable catches.
However, many of Hill’s flaws stood out this year too. The biggest issue of all was that Hill dropped way too many easy completions. Lack of focus and awareness is never good when evaluated during the pre-draft process. Also, similar to Demaryium Thomas, I believe that Hill will have a difficult time transitioning to the NFL as he refines his route running. This was something that was very difficult for Thomas during his adjustment as well; the system at Georgia Tech just does not benefit its receivers during the draft scouting process. Hill has a very high ceiling, precisely the reason he gave for his declaration. However, he has a low floor too, and could even go undrafted when all is said and done. I can see him being selected from the fourth round on. Hill might be even to take that grade up if he performs very well in the upcoming pre-draft events.
DECISION: Meh
Chris Givens, WR —Jr.— Wake Forest
Checking in at 6’0″, 195 pounds, Chris Givens does not fit the profile of most high profile wide out prospects who declare early for the draft. But that is perfect, because that is exactly what makes Givens so dangerous; he is not a high profile receiver. Givens makes up for his lack of size with his speed, route running ability, and hands. Givens has played since his freshman year, and capped it off wit a record setting season in which he earned All-ACC first team honors as a receiver. After putting up a dismal sophomore follow up to his freshman season, Givens finished in 2011 with over 1,300 yards receiving and 9 touchdowns, after assuming the Demon Deacons’ role as key play maker. Givens’ production will surely attract NFL teams looking for their Mike Wallace or Desean Jackson; the smaller, faster receivers who burn corners off the edge, and are becoming a lot more popular across the NFL today.
Givens’ lack of prototypical size will be the biggest factor to scare off NFL teams from taking him within the first three rounds. In order to negate the possibility of falling down draft boards, Givens must run a fast time at the combine. It will give him the best chance of getting picked earlier. He will also have to stand out from other similar play makers of his stature in this year’s class, such as Kendall Wright and Eric Page. It will be most important to prove that he can be a difference maker. He will never block or get off the line as well as bigger prime time receivers, so the little things will make the biggest difference. At this point, I could see Givens being taken anywhere from the third round on. He will be one of the more scrutinized prospects leading up to the draft.
DECISION: GOOD
Eric Page, WR —Jr.— Toledo
Rarely does any prospect declare early from the Mid American Conference, but Toledo’s Eric Page is one of this year’s exceptions. A true junior, Page makes his declaration after establishing himself as one of Toledo’s best players in history. Page has started since his freshman year, catching at least eighty passes and totaling over 1,000 yards receiving each of the three. Page is not only a weapon on offense, but on special teams as well. Page finished the 2011 season fifth nationally with 2,244 all purpose yards, as well as 1,182 yards receiving and 10 touchdowns. Even though his YPC has decreased each year to the next, Page considerably approved upon his statistics each season.
At 5’10″, 185 pounds, Page faces steeper questions about size and durability than other receivers. Also, at his size he will most likely never be much of an effective blocker in the NFL, and he may be forced to play in a slot role. Page also is one of the smaller burners, much like [Jarius & Kendall] Wright and [Chris] Givens. However, he is even smaller than some of his counterparts. Aside from size and physicality, Page also played at a relatively low level of competition in the MAC conference. Even though he played since his freshman year, he will certainly face a whole new level of competition at the NFL level. With all of these issues, Eric Page does not have a very high ceiling of potential. Returning to school would have been a bad decision, because Page does not have much more to prove in Toledo. With all of these concerns, Page probably currently grades out in the later middle rounds, favorably after the fourth round.
DECISION: GOOD